Q5. 시즌 내 상승세는 진짜인가?

한 팀의 한 시즌을 경기별 승/패 시퀀스(게임 로그)로 본다. 눈에 보이는 연승이 "기세 없는 동전"(운빨 시나리오)에서도 흔히 나오는 군집일 뿐인지 검정한다. 데이터는 빌드타임 스냅샷에서 읽는다 — 닫힌 시즌이라 불변(ADR-0005).

Los Angeles Dodgers
대표 사례 — Los Angeles Dodgers
2025 최장 8연승
93승 69패 · 승률 .574
56%
운빨 시나리오에서도 56%가 이만큼 한다

전체 집계 — 150 팀-시즌 (2021–2025)

운빨 90% 안
90%
최장 연승이 동전도 흔히 만드는 길이 = 진짜 아님
조건부 승률 (직전 경기)
직전 승 .516 · 직전 패 .485
모멘텀이 진짜라면 크게 갈려야 한다 — 3%p뿐
연속 검정 z 평균
-0.15
0 근처 = 시즌 전반에 뭉침(스트릭) 없음

최근 10경기 승률 곡선 vs 운빨 시나리오

파란 선이 실제 팀의 10경기 이동평균 승률. 회색 띠는 같은 승률·기세 없는 동전이 80% 머무는 구간(평평 = 추세 없음). 팀 곡선이 띠 안에서만 출렁이면, 그 상승세·하락세는 동전도 만드는 노이즈다.

Los Angeles Dodgers — 최장 연승 vs 운빨 시나리오

기세 없는 동전이 이만큼 연승할 확률. 높을수록 평범(운빨), 낮을수록 진짜에 가까움.

시즌전적최장 연승운빨 %
2021106-56 (.654)972%
2022111-51 (.685)1241%
2023101-62 (.620)1127%
202498-64 (.605)787%
202593-69 (.574)856%

운빨 %가 높으면(80%+) 그 연승은 기세 없는 동전도 흔히 하는 일 = 진짜가 아니다. 낮을수록(30% 미만) 동전으로 설명하기 어려운 흐름이다. 다저스 2022년 12연승조차 동전이 41% 한다 — 역대급 강팀의 연승도 대부분 운빨이라는 뜻.

전 팀 · 전 시즌 — 최장 연승 vs 운빨 시나리오

운빨 %가 낮을수록 동전으로 설명 안 되는 예외. 헤더 클릭으로 정렬, 시즌·리그로 추림.

시즌리그
팀시즌리그전적최장 연승운빨 % ▲판정
Minnesota Twins2025AL71-92 (.436)130%예외
St. Louis Cardinals2021NL90-72 (.556)170%예외
Seattle Mariners2022AL90-72 (.556)142%예외
Athletics2021AL86-76 (.531)132%예외
Cincinnati Reds2023NL82-81 (.503)122%예외
Minnesota Twins2024AL82-80 (.506)122%예외
Athletics2023AL50-112 (.309)73%예외
New York Yankees2021AL92-70 (.568)134%예외
Atlanta Braves2025NL77-86 (.472)104%예외
Milwaukee Brewers2025NL97-65 (.599)144%예외
Kansas City Royals2023AL56-107 (.344)76%예외
San Francisco Giants2023NL80-83 (.491)106%예외
Atlanta Braves2022NL101-61 (.624)148%예외
Baltimore Orioles2022AL83-79 (.512)109%예외
Tampa Bay Rays2023AL99-63 (.611)139%예외
Colorado Rockies2024NL61-101 (.377)710%운빨
St. Louis Cardinals2025NL78-84 (.482)911%운빨
Los Angeles Angels2025AL72-90 (.444)813%운빨
San Diego Padres2021NL81-83 (.494)913%운빨
Cleveland Guardians2025AL88-75 (.540)1014%운빨
Milwaukee Brewers2021NL95-67 (.586)1116%운빨
Houston Astros2021AL95-67 (.586)1117%운빨
Boston Red Sox2025AL90-73 (.552)1017%운빨
Seattle Mariners2025AL90-72 (.556)1018%운빨
Boston Red Sox2023AL78-85 (.479)820%운빨
Miami Marlins2022NL69-93 (.426)721%운빨
Miami Marlins2025NL79-83 (.488)823%운빨
Chicago White Sox2025AL60-102 (.370)623%운빨
New York Yankees2022AL99-63 (.611)1124%운빨
Philadelphia Phillies2022NL87-75 (.537)924%운빨
Chicago Cubs2021NL71-91 (.438)724%운빨
Toronto Blue Jays2025AL94-68 (.580)1025%운빨
Tampa Bay Rays2021AL100-62 (.617)1125%운빨
Atlanta Braves2021NL88-74 (.543)927%운빨
Los Angeles Dodgers2023NL101-62 (.620)1127%운빨
Los Angeles Angels2022AL73-89 (.451)728%운빨
New York Mets2024NL89-73 (.549)928%운빨
Los Angeles Angels2024AL63-99 (.389)628%운빨
San Diego Padres2023NL82-80 (.506)828%운빨
Houston Astros2022AL107-56 (.656)1230%운빨
Philadelphia Phillies2021NL83-80 (.509)830%운빨
Chicago Cubs2022NL74-88 (.457)730%운빨
Chicago Cubs2023NL83-79 (.512)830%운빨
Arizona Diamondbacks2021NL53-110 (.325)532%운빨
Boston Red Sox2021AL92-70 (.568)935%운빨
Milwaukee Brewers2023NL92-70 (.568)935%운빨
Pittsburgh Pirates2023NL76-86 (.469)735%운빨
Detroit Tigers2022AL66-96 (.407)635%운빨
Cleveland Guardians2024AL92-69 (.571)936%운빨
Tampa Bay Rays2025AL77-85 (.475)737%운빨
Cincinnati Reds2024NL77-85 (.475)737%운빨
Detroit Tigers2021AL77-85 (.475)737%운빨
Kansas City Royals2024AL86-76 (.531)838%운빨
Chicago White Sox2024AL41-122 (.252)438%운빨
Boston Red Sox2022AL78-84 (.482)739%운빨
Minnesota Twins2022AL78-85 (.479)739%운빨
New York Mets2021NL79-85 (.482)740%운빨
Los Angeles Dodgers2022NL111-51 (.685)1241%운빨
Athletics2024AL69-93 (.426)642%운빨
Seattle Mariners2023AL88-74 (.543)842%운빨
Houston Astros2024AL88-73 (.547)844%운빨
Colorado Rockies2025NL43-119 (.265)444%운빨
Philadelphia Phillies2025NL96-66 (.593)945%운빨
St. Louis Cardinals2023NL71-92 (.436)646%운빨
San Francisco Giants2025NL81-81 (.500)747%운빨
Houston Astros2023AL90-72 (.556)847%운빨
Pittsburgh Pirates2025NL71-91 (.438)648%운빨
Texas Rangers2023AL90-72 (.556)848%운빨
Kansas City Royals2025AL82-80 (.506)749%운빨
Colorado Rockies2023NL59-103 (.364)549%운빨
Toronto Blue Jays2021AL91-71 (.562)851%운빨
New York Mets2025NL83-79 (.512)752%운빨
Chicago White Sox2023AL61-101 (.377)554%운빨
Toronto Blue Jays2022AL92-70 (.568)854%운빨
Kansas City Royals2021AL74-88 (.457)655%운빨
Los Angeles Dodgers2025NL93-69 (.574)856%운빨
Cincinnati Reds2022NL62-100 (.383)557%운빨
Toronto Blue Jays2024AL75-88 (.460)657%운빨
St. Louis Cardinals2022NL93-69 (.574)858%운빨
Baltimore Orioles2025AL75-87 (.463)658%운빨
New York Yankees2025AL94-68 (.580)858%운빨
New York Yankees2024AL94-68 (.580)858%운빨
New York Mets2023NL77-88 (.467)660%운빨
Pittsburgh Pirates2024NL76-86 (.469)661%운빨
Los Angeles Angels2021AL77-85 (.475)663%운빨
Washington Nationals2021NL66-99 (.400)564%운빨
Washington Nationals2025NL66-96 (.407)567%운빨
Atlanta Braves2023NL104-58 (.642)967%운빨
Philadelphia Phillies2023NL90-72 (.556)771%운빨
San Diego Padres2025NL90-72 (.556)771%운빨
Los Angeles Dodgers2021NL106-56 (.654)972%운빨
Texas Rangers2025AL81-81 (.500)672%운빨
Colorado Rockies2022NL68-94 (.420)572%운빨
Chicago White Sox2022AL81-81 (.500)673%운빨
San Francisco Giants2022NL81-81 (.500)673%운빨
San Francisco Giants2021NL107-55 (.661)974%운빨
Cleveland Guardians2022AL92-70 (.568)775%운빨
Cincinnati Reds2021NL83-81 (.506)675%운빨
Baltimore Orioles2023AL101-61 (.624)876%운빨
Cincinnati Reds2025NL84-81 (.509)677%운빨
Chicago Cubs2024NL83-79 (.512)678%운빨
Miami Marlins2023NL84-79 (.515)678%운빨
San Diego Padres2024NL93-69 (.574)778%운빨
Washington Nationals2024NL71-91 (.438)578%운빨
St. Louis Cardinals2024NL84-79 (.515)678%운빨
Arizona Diamondbacks2023NL84-78 (.519)680%운빨
Philadelphia Phillies2024NL95-67 (.586)781%운빨
Los Angeles Angels2023AL73-89 (.451)582%운빨
Minnesota Twins2021AL73-89 (.451)583%운빨
Detroit Tigers2024AL86-76 (.531)683%운빨
Tampa Bay Rays2022AL86-76 (.531)684%운빨
Arizona Diamondbacks2022NL74-88 (.457)584%운빨
Colorado Rockies2021NL74-87 (.460)585%운빨
Athletics2022AL60-102 (.370)486%운빨
Texas Rangers2021AL60-102 (.370)487%운빨
Los Angeles Dodgers2024NL98-64 (.605)787%운빨
Athletics2025AL76-86 (.469)587%운빨
Atlanta Braves2024NL89-73 (.549)688%운빨
Arizona Diamondbacks2024NL89-73 (.549)688%운빨
Toronto Blue Jays2023AL89-73 (.549)688%운빨
Pittsburgh Pirates2022NL62-100 (.383)489%운빨
Miami Marlins2024NL62-100 (.383)490%운빨
Baltimore Orioles2024AL91-72 (.558)690%운빨
Texas Rangers2024AL79-84 (.485)591%운빨
Seattle Mariners2021AL91-72 (.558)691%운빨
New York Mets2022NL101-61 (.624)791%운빨
Detroit Tigers2023AL79-84 (.485)591%운빨
Arizona Diamondbacks2025NL80-83 (.491)592%운빨
Cleveland Guardians2021AL80-82 (.494)592%운빨
San Francisco Giants2024NL80-82 (.494)592%운빨
Tampa Bay Rays2024AL80-82 (.494)592%운빨
Chicago White Sox2021AL93-70 (.571)693%운빨
Boston Red Sox2024AL81-82 (.497)593%운빨
Milwaukee Brewers2024NL93-69 (.574)693%운빨
Kansas City Royals2022AL65-97 (.401)493%운빨
Miami Marlins2021NL67-97 (.409)494%운빨
New York Yankees2023AL82-80 (.506)595%운빨
Texas Rangers2022AL68-94 (.420)495%운빨
Milwaukee Brewers2022NL86-76 (.531)597%운빨
Minnesota Twins2023AL87-75 (.537)597%운빨
Detroit Tigers2025AL87-75 (.537)598%운빨
Houston Astros2025AL87-75 (.537)598%운빨
Washington Nationals2023NL73-91 (.445)498%운빨
Baltimore Orioles2021AL52-110 (.321)398%운빨
San Diego Padres2022NL89-73 (.549)598%운빨
Washington Nationals2022NL55-107 (.340)399%운빨
Cleveland Guardians2023AL76-87 (.466)499%운빨
Chicago Cubs2025NL92-70 (.568)599%운빨
Pittsburgh Pirates2021NL61-101 (.377)3100%운빨
Seattle Mariners2024AL85-77 (.525)4100%운빨

Just MLB — MLB 데이터 분석 대시보드

© 2026 Just Apps. All rights reserved.

Just MLB